Combining Data, Reaching a Clear Conclusion

Brad DeLong:

Spa Talks with Former Not-So-Senior Administration Officials...
Four points emerged:

Doing something large-scale and effective about housing in 2009 would have been really, really hard because most underwater homeowners were making their payments, would have regarded it as grossly unfair for the government to have bailed out their peers in default, and banks had no interest in taking any haircuts at all on mortgage loans that were current--no matter how far underwater the borrower was.

The failure of the PPIP and other policies in 2009 to achieve significant scale and actually boost the economy-wide supply of safe assets that the market was so desperate for is actually the fault of Krugman, Sachs, and Stiglitz for opposing it...

DeLong comments:

I am very skeptical of (2)--Jeff, Joe, and Paul seem to have had no influence on anything else, so why should they have been decisive here?

But a pattern is emerging, and we can leap to conclusions in the manner of Young Sherlock Holmes ("You accused the French ambassador!" "It was the Russian ambassador.")

Yesterday, many of us thought that Richard Koo was bitter, or at least mishearing things.

Today, in the aftermath of The DeLong Revelation, we know better. Koo heard the official correctly, and probably was just too polite to call the person an idiot.

Today, we know that the problem is that the Administration has someone reading Krugman who knows how to play politics but hasn't the slightest understanding of what he reads.

Jourmalism Made Simple

I haven't seen any of the Usual Suspects make this complaint in the blogsphere,* so I'm resurrecting this blog for the moment.

What idiot at The Daily Show decided that Annie Jacobsen** should be treated as if she were making a Serious contribution to knowledge?


*Maybe all the Cool Kids are only using Twitter these days.

**Clearly the same person, see her bio here.

Conventional 30-Year Mortgage Rate v 10-Year CMT

Because the first word we think of when someone says "Alabama" is overeducated

The University of Alabama has cancelled class this coming week so students can go to Pasadena to watch a football game.

Or, more accurately, the school has cancelled classes on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday; students are expected to attend on Monday and Tuesday. As the press release notes:

[G]iven the number of students who have to be in Pasadena, Calif., to represent The University of Alabama on Jan. 7 and the number of faculty, staff and students who want to be there, we are dismissing classes on Jan. 6-8.

Enrollment at Alabama is about 27,000, with another 1,400 (rounding up) in faculty, per the 2008 Factbook. Those who "have to be in Pasadena" include maybe 100-150 players, some student trainers, cheerleaders, and the like, and maybe the marching band. Call it 500, to be nice.

So there are either a lot of students who can afford to fly to LA and back for a long weekend, or something else is going on.

They will be doing some good things while they are there.

Quote of the Day

: It is a truth universally acknowledged in Romancelandia, that a single brooding man in possession of a dickbag nature must be in want of a Magic Hoo-Hoo to reform him.

More here.

Another Myth Laid to Rest

There is an old Woody Allen routine where "a crazed Evbangelist" throws a Bible out of his hotel window, striking Woody in the chest. Fortunately, a bullet he has kept in his breast pocket for years saves his life.

Apparently, sadly, the other way around doesn't work:

The pastor of a Maryville, Illinois, church was shot to death during a service Sunday in front of horrified parishioners who then tackled the gunman, state police said.

Fred Winters, the pastor of the First Baptist Church of Maryville, was shot and killed during the 8 a.m. service...

Witness Claudia Bohley told CNN affiliate KSDK she was in the church's foyer waiting for the service to begin when she heard "pop, pop, pop. ... We just couldn't imagine what had happened."

She said she ran into the sanctuary and saw what looked like paper scattered on the pulpit. She said she was later told that the bullet hit Winters' Bible.

Sad condolences to the family and the parishoners.

Can't Be a Coincidence...

Paulson and Co. announced their bailout of risk-mismanaging firms on "Talk like a Pirate" Day.

Why talk the talk when you can walk the walk?